Abstract:

Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans following hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288 year history, that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina, reflect a long term pattern of societal response to hazard events—reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina’s consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic—accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40-50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency post-disaster period appears to be longer in duration than any other studied disasters. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historic experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8-11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population and employment following Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent.

Biography:

Robert Kates trained as a geographer and taught geography for many years at Clark University in Worcester, MA, USA. He also participated in interdisciplinary programs addressing both environment and development at the University of Dar as Salaam in Tanzania, Clark University, and at the World Hunger Program at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, USA. Kates now serves as a Senior Research Associate at Harvard and co-convener of the Steering Group for the Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability. Kates served as chair of the Coordinating Committee on a Transition toward Sustainability following the National Academy of Sciences' report, Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. His current research is on long-term trends and values, attitudes and beliefs affecting a sustainability transition -- e.g., see "What is Sustainable Development? Goals, Indicators, Values, and Practice" (Kates et al., 2005) and "Do Global Attitudes and Behaviors Support Sustainable Development?" (Leiserowitz, Kates and Parris, 2005). His most recent books include the co-authorship of Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (2002), and with the AAG Global Change in Local Places Research Group, Global Change in Local Places: Estimating, Understanding, and Reducing Greenhouse Gases (2003). He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and in 1991 he was awarded the National Medal of Science for his work on hunger, environment, and natural hazards. He now lives and continues to work as an independent scholar in Maine.

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Last revised 09/22/2006