DDP 743. Marco Boscolo, Joseph Buongiorno, and Richard Condit. "A Model To Predict Biomass Recovery and Economic Potential of a Tropical Forest." February 2000. 23 pp. Central America Project Series

This paper presents a neotropical forest growth model and applies it to estimate biomass loss and recovery given certain initial conditions and planned harvesting activities. The data used to parameterize the model gave a total biomass lower than in other locations in the region, even within the same life zone. This suggests that, even within life zones, different forests exhibit different levels of biomass and biomass growth. Indeed, when the model was applied to simulate biomass trajectories under different initial conditions, it also predicted a lower biomass growth than other studies. The model was then applied to evaluate different strategies to reduce carbon emissions, or increase carbon sequestration, by choosing appropriate harvesting activities. We found that delaying otherwise profitable activities in secondary and intervened forests yielded carbon benefits at low cost: almost $0/tonC in secondary forests and $7/tonC in intervened forest. Instead, modifying practices in primary forests would involve very large reductions in NPV from timber sales. Furthermore, preliminary findings also suggest that reducing logging damage could result in cost-effective reductions in carbon emissions.

Keywords: Central America, carbon sequestration, modeling, tropical forests

JEL Codes: Q23, C61, H41

This work was prepared with partial support from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s Center for Tropical Forest Science, from the AVINA Foundation, from the Center for International Development, and from the Harvard Institute for International Development.

Dr. Marco Boscolo is an Associate at the Harvard Institute for International Development.

Dr. Joseph Buongiorno is Professor of Forestry, Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin, Madison.

Dr. Richard Condit is Director, Latin America Program, Center for Tropical Forest Science of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama.